ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 sene ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnyay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Trump, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturduktan sonra diplomasinin gerektirdi\u011fi \u015fekilde davranaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fiyi yan\u0131ltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump’tan radikal kararlar<\/strong><\/p>\n \u015eimdiye kadar Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131, Trans-Pasifik Ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (TPP), Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler E\u011fitim, Bilim ve K\u00fclt\u00fcr \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’nden (UNESCO) \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n ABD tarihinin belki de en radikal kararlar\u0131na imzas\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131.<\/p>\n Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n AB, Kanada ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum tarifelerine tabi tutulan \u00fclkeler listesine eklenmesi, Trump y\u00f6netiminin son s\u00fcrprizi oldu.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131 ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n fitilini ate\u015fleyen bu ad\u0131m\u0131n, ulusal g\u00fcvenlik gerek\u00e7esine dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u015fleri daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirdi.<\/p>\n Ak\u0131llarda soru i\u015fareti<\/strong><\/p>\n Uzmanlar, aylard\u0131r \u00c7in ve ABD aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n ABD ile AB aras\u0131ndaki siyasi ili\u015fkilerin ve savunma alan\u0131ndaki i\u015f birli\u011finin nas\u0131l etkilenece\u011fini de kestirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n 3-4 milyarl\u0131k b\u00f6l\u00fcme y\u00fczde 25 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi<\/strong><\/p>\n Peterson Uluslararas\u0131 Ekonomi Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc K\u0131demli Uzman\u0131 Gary Hufbauer, ABD ve AB aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerden 4-5 ay i\u00e7inde sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n Hufbauer, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli iki m\u00fcttefiki aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin olumsuz etkilenece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n “AB h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 listedeki Amerikan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri getirecek. Bu, ABD-AB aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin 3-4 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00fczde 25 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.”<\/p>\n M\u00fczakereler aylar s\u00fcrer<\/strong><\/p>\n M\u00fczakereler, ABD’nin AB’den talep etti\u011fi tavizler y\u00fcz\u00fcnden zaman alabilir. Trump, \u00f6zellikle Almanya’ya ticaret fazlas\u0131 nedeniyle tepkili.<\/p>\n Gary Hufbauer, m\u00fczakereler sayesinde tarifelerin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n “ABD ile AB aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakerelerden sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nmas\u0131 en az 4-5 ay s\u00fcrer. M\u00fczakereler sonucunda tarifelerin kotalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ancak e\u011fer m\u00fczakereler sonu\u00e7 vermezse D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’n\u00fcn (DT\u00d6) anla\u015fmazl\u0131k s\u00fcreci birka\u00e7 y\u0131l bile s\u00fcrebilir.”<\/p>\n Karar muhtemelen ABD’nin lehine<\/strong><\/p>\n DT\u00d6’n\u00fcn \u00fclkelerin ulusal g\u00fcvenlik meselelerine kar\u0131\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131ndan bahseden Hufbauer \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n “G\u00fcvenlikleri i\u00e7in neyin iyi, neyin k\u00f6t\u00fc, neyin do\u011fru, neyin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemeye kalkmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in karar muhtemelen ABD’nin lehine olur.”<\/p>\n Kanada ve Meksika ile daha \u00e7abuk \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilir<\/strong><\/p>\n Hufbauer’a g\u00f6re Kanada ve Meksika’n\u0131n ABD\u2019yi misillemesinin AB\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha kolay.<\/p>\n Bu \u00fclkelere uygulanan g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay i\u00e7inde kotalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n G\u00fcney Kore, \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum tarifelerinden ihracat kotalar\u0131 sayesinde muaf tutuldu.<\/p>\n Kota i\u015flerin seyrini de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu kotalar\u0131n tarifelerin yerine ge\u00e7mesinin taraflar\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha memnun edece\u011fini,Gary Hufbauer \u015fu s\u00f6zlerle anlatt\u0131:<\/p>\n “G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok insan biliyor ancak Trump Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131n genelini kotalar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna edebilir. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkeler de kota nedeniyle artan fiyattan yararlanacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in tarifelere k\u0131yasla kat kat daha mutlu olacaklar.”<\/p>\n AB, Kanada ve Meksika gard\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n AB, Kanada ve Meksika’n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 misilleme listeleriyle son se\u00e7imde Trump’\u0131 destekleyen “sal\u0131ncak eyaletleri” hedef ald\u0131. B\u00f6ylece siyasi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rma stratejisi izlediler.<\/p>\n Bu da Trump y\u00f6netimini geri ad\u0131m atmaya ikna etmek i\u00e7in en iyi yollardan biri.<\/p>\n Johns Hopkins \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc ve Cato Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Steve Hanke ise Trump y\u00f6netiminin bask\u0131lara ra\u011fmen pozisyonunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n Trump’\u0131n oylar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fte<\/strong><\/p>\n Hanke, yap\u0131lan kamuoyu anketlerinde, Trump\u2019\u0131n onay oran\u0131n\u0131n son aylarda y\u00fckseldi\u011finden bahsediyor.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump, kabinesi ve ekonomi dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten adil olmayan ticaret uygulamalar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yorlar. Trump\u2019\u0131n onay oran\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa Amerikan halk\u0131 da bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131 destekliyor. Bu nedenle, ticaret politikalar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fim olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum. ABD\u2019nin \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum tarifelerini istediklerini almadan kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum”<\/p>\n Steve Hanke’e g\u00f6re AB, Kanada ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli m\u00fcttefiklerinden oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ulusal g\u00fcvenlik mazeretinin tuhaf ve sorunlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n ABD davay\u0131 kaybedebilir<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu nedenle, ABD’nin DT\u00d6’n\u00fcn anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc s\u00fcrecinde zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Hanke ekliyor:<\/p>\n \u201cAB ve Kanada, DT\u00d6\u2019ye ba\u015fvuracaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar. Ulusal g\u00fcvenlik gerek\u00e7esi, DT\u00d6’deki s\u00fcreci biraz belirsizle\u015ftiriyor. ABD, zaten bu y\u00fczden bu yola ba\u015fvurdu ama sadece ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fimizi tehdit ediyor demekle davay\u0131 kazanamaz. Bu gerek\u00e7enin do\u011frulu\u011funu kan\u0131tlamas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bence bu zor. ABD\u2019nin DT\u00d6\u2019deki davay\u0131 kaybedece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n Kaynak: AA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileriyle a\u00e7\u0131lan “Pandora’n\u0131n Kutusu”ndan en son \u201cM\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131 Ticaret Sava\u015f\u0131\u201d \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1000097,"featured_media":3306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[61],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3305"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1000097"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}