{"id":1680,"date":"2017-11-04T14:28:33","date_gmt":"2017-11-04T12:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/?p=1680"},"modified":"2017-11-04T14:28:33","modified_gmt":"2017-11-04T12:28:33","slug":"demografik-firsat-pencerisini-yakalamaliyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/2017\/11\/04\/demografik-firsat-pencerisini-yakalamaliyiz\/","title":{"rendered":"DEMOGRAF\u0130K FIRSAT PENCER\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 YAKALAMALIYIZ\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Levent_Sahin_foto\"<\/p>\n

Do\u00e7. Dr. Levent \u015eahin<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

DEMOGRAF\u0130K FIRSAT PENCER\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 YAKALAMALIYIZ\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksek do\u011furganl\u0131k ve y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc demografik bir profilden, do\u011fumlar\u0131n bilin\u00e7li olarak kontrol edildi\u011fi ve \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n giderek azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131ya ge\u00e7i\u015fi ifade eden demografik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da tamamlanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00dclkemizde 1945-1950 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda 6.9 olan toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yani bir di\u011fer ifadeyle kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, 1980\u2019lerde 3.41\u2019e, 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda 2.4\u2019e, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2.08\u2019e geriledi\u011fi; ancak son d\u00f6nemlerde gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00fclkenin ekonomik kalk\u0131nmas\u0131nda ne denli \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funa dair \u00f6zellikle Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6nderli\u011finde H\u00fck\u00fcmetimizin s\u00f6ylem ve politikalar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durdu\u00a0ruldu\u011fu ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibar\u0131yla 2.10 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, an itibar\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusunun ancak kendi kendini ikame edebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinde bir y\u00fczy\u0131la yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan demografik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecini T\u00fcrkiye 40-50 y\u0131lda tamamlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. K\u0131saca s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemi sona ermi\u015ftir. Son 35 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde g\u00f6zlemlenen bu durumun geriye \u00e7evrilme \u015fans\u0131 da \u00e7ok kolay g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir. Yap\u0131lan tahminlere g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fu anda sahip oldu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019lik n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131, 2050\u2019li y\u0131llara gelindi\u011finde s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015facakt\u0131r. 2040 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0tahmin\u00ee 97 milyon civar\u0131na ula\u015facak olan T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu, bu tarihten sonra bir azalma e\u011filimine dahi girebilecektir. Bu durumun \u00fclke kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u015fu anda h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u00e7\u0131k olan demografik f\u0131rsat penceresine de\u011finmek gerekmektedir. Demografik f\u0131rsat penceresi; demografik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinde, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flarken potansiyel i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131n\u0131n, di\u011fer bir ifadeyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusun artmaya devam etmesi olarak tan\u0131mlanmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir f\u0131rsat, bir \u00fclkenin tarihinde yaln\u0131zca bir kez yakalayabilece\u011fi bir f\u0131rsatt\u0131r. Demografik f\u0131rsat penceresi, bir \u00fclkenin ekonomik kalk\u0131nmas\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli rol oynayabilecek bir etkendir. Ancak, bu kalk\u0131nman\u0131n sa\u011flanabilmesi toplumun sosyal, siyasal, ekonomik ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel pek \u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ahenkli i\u015fleyi\u015fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinin, 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda (1965-1990) sahip olduklar\u0131 bu demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinden en iyi \u015fekilde yararlanarak \u00fcretimlerini ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerini art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Hatta \u201cn\u00fcfus dinamikleri\u201d, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemdeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fc\u00e7te birini ve \u201cDo\u011fu Asya\u201ddaki ekonomik mucizenin de yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca, bu mucizenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesinde, demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelinin fark\u0131na var\u0131p gerekli olan d\u00fczenlemelerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan\u00a0kurum ve politikalar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131nda, s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinden istenilen
\nd\u00fczeyde yararlanamayan Latin Amerika \u00fclkelerinin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc durumu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u00dclkemizin sahip oldu\u011fu demografik f\u0131rsat penceresi, t\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda g\u00f6sterilmektedir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son d\u00f6nemlerde y\u0131ll\u0131k genel n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ortalama olarak %1\u2019ler civar\u0131nda seyretmekte iken
\nn\u00fcfus ivmesi dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusun y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ise %1.88\u2019dir. 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde toplam n\u00fcfus yakla\u015f\u0131k 97 milyon civar\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinin kapanaca\u011f\u0131 tarih ise
\n2040 y\u0131l\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artarak 60 milyon (toplam n\u00fcfusun yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %70\u2019i) civar\u0131na gelecek, bu tarihten sonra ise 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar azalan oranlarda artmaya devam edecektir. 2040 y\u0131l\u0131nda 15-64 ya\u015f grubu 64.8 milyon ile en \u00fcst noktaya ula\u015facak ve bu tarihten sonra azalmaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda 15-64 ya\u015f grubu n\u00fcfusu 63.3 milyona gerilemi\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 paralellikte ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131 da 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren artmaya ba\u015flayacak ve 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde\u00a0toplam n\u00fcfusun %14.6\u2019s\u0131na, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise %18.4\u2019\u00fcne ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2020 ve 2040 y\u0131llar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem arz etmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye, \u015fu andaki \u201cgen\u00e7 \u00fclke\u201d imaj\u0131n\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u201corta ya\u015fl\u0131\u201d imaj\u0131na b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flayacak ve 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde bug\u00fcn\u00fcn di\u011fer Avrupa \u00fclkeleri gibi \u201cya\u015fl\u0131 \u00fclke\u201d konumuna varacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda gen\u00e7lerine ba\u015fta e\u011fitim olmak \u00fczere gereken her t\u00fcrl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmak ve onlar\u0131n istihdam edilebilirliklerini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f beceriler kazand\u0131rmak zorundad\u0131r. \u015eu anda h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u00e7\u0131k bulunan bu demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinden 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda yeterince faydalanamayacak bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi daha
\nsonraki d\u00f6nemlerde \u00e7ok daha zor g\u00fcnlerin bekleyece\u011fi a\u015fik\u00e2rd\u0131r.\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan hemen t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerinde oldu\u011fu gibi ciddi bir gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r ve \u00f6n\u00fcndeki f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lamamas\u0131 ya da k\u00f6t\u00fc kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u015fsizlik, yoksulluk ve sosyal huzursuzluklar\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. \u00d6zellikle, gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun e\u011fitim seviyesini y\u00fckseltecek politikalar uygulanmaz ve aktif n\u00fcfusa \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n gerekliliklerini kar\u015f\u0131layacak beceriler kazand\u0131r\u0131lmazsa s\u00f6z konusu demografik f\u0131rsat penceresi,
\ni\u015fsizli\u011fi daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun h\u00e2line getirecek ve belki daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc sosyal d\u0131\u015flanma olgusu, en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde ya\u015fanmaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gelecekteki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, bu gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusuna ne oranda yat\u0131r\u0131m yapabilece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do\u00e7. Dr. Levent \u015eahin   DEMOGRAF\u0130K FIRSAT PENCER\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 YAKALAMALIYIZ\u2026 Y\u00fcksek do\u011furganl\u0131k ve y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc demografik bir profilden, do\u011fumlar\u0131n bilin\u00e7li olarak kontrol edildi\u011fi ve \u00f6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131n giderek azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131ya ge\u00e7i\u015fi ifade eden demografik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da tamamlanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00dclkemizde 1945-1950 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda 6.9 olan toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yani bir di\u011fer ifadeyle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[83],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1680"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1683,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680\/revisions\/1683"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vizyon2023.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}